Federico Gaon, a journalist for Infobae, an Argentine news website, recently asked me a number of questions which were translated and published here.
A year ends and another begins, and the Middle East long could occur from year to year. So much so, that four years into the “Arab Spring”, the expected wave of democratization among Muslim countries was swept by civil war and a strong Islamist resurgence. Since then, many questions surround the issues related to this controversial area. To try to clarify the picture, Infobae consulted several experts to briefly share their views on the current situation and forecasts for 2015.
Raymond Ibrahim
American specialist in Islam and the Middle East
American specialist in Islam and the Middle East
1. In your view, what are the prospects facing the Middle East in 2015? (Likely scenarios)
Things will likely stay in the status quo; we will hear of sporadic US strikes/victories against the Islamic State (ISIS), then, just as they “suddenly” appeared, we will hear how they have “suddenly” acquired more territory, more influence. I wrote more about this here.
2. In general terms, how would you assess the situation of the religious minorities in the Middle East. Will it improve or worsen in 2015?
Based on recent (and long term) trends, they will continue to get worse. Recall that a century ago, almost 1/4 of the Middle East was still Christian. Today something like 2 percent is. The reason being widespread discrimination and, in recent years, wholesale persecution, a byproduct of Islamic radicalization. Keep in mind that, in the 7th century when Islam came onto the scene, the overwhelming majority of north Africa and southwest Asia — the Middle East — was Christian. Over the course of centuries their numbers have dwindled and, barring some unforseen “miracle,” they will continue to dwindle. Already nations like Morocco, Algeria, and Libya have virtually no Christians.
3. Looking back, how do you assess the “Arab Spring” ? Can we expect positive outcomes in 2015? Do you think ISIS will be defeated?
ISIS may be defeated — like al-Qaeda was supposedly defeated — but that doesn’t mean the ideology behind such groups will be defeated, and as long as that ideology is alive, so will the jihad. I elaborate greatly on this theme in this recent article.
This war is about breaking an idea – the idea of Islam. It is not about breaking people and things or about acquiring or denying territory. Raymond Ibrahim is right. ISIS and Al Qaeda are merely units in the Jihad. Many others will spring up to carry out the mission. Others that, like ISIS, won’t care about our rules of warfare.